New Zealand has now had four and a half years of good job growth, with 165,000 jobs created since June 1998.

— the official unemployment rate for the December 2002 quarter is 4.9%, after dropping 0.5% from the 5.4% rate last September. New Zealand was last below the 5% level in March 1988.

— the number of official unemployed is now at 98,000 people, a fall of 8,000 people from last September .

— The quarterly fall was driven by a drop in unemployment for people aged 20-29 years, traditionally a volatile age group in the statistics, and possibly explained by changes in the labour market status of students. According to Statistics NZ, the previous quarter’s rise in unemployment was driven by an increase in unemployment among this age group.

— The growth of the working-age population has doubled in the last year, increasing by 59,000 in 2002, compared with 31,000 in 2001. Statistics NZ says that half of this increase (30,000) has come from net immigration.

— Unemployment rates have declined for all Maori and Pacific people over the last year, although they still remain very high. Maori unemployment is at 11.4% (down from 12.9% a year ago) and Pacific Peoples 8.2% (down from 9.9%).

— long-term unemployment still makes up a greater proportion of the numbers unemployed, with the numbers of people out-of-work for over six months rising from 29.6% to 30.1% during the last quarter.

— New Zealand is now experiencing one of the lowest unemployment rates in the OECD. We are significantly below the OECD average of 7.1% and are now ranked ninth amongst the 27 nations with standardised unemployment rates. NZ’s rate of unemployment is lower than all our major trading partners, including the United Kingdom (5.1%), Japan (5.5%), the United States (6.0%) and Australia (6.2%)

Economic Development Minister Jim Anderton believes that booming regions and economic optimism are behind the continuing low unemployment rate. Anderton: “Up and down New Zealand there are skills shortages and new jobs being created every day ... New Zealand is well on its way to being the Pacific Economic Tiger with growth in jobs, flourishing of new ideas and innovative businesses and regions. This is just the beginning of an economic upturn that can make New Zealand one of the best performing countries in the OECD.”

Sources – Statistics NZ Household Labour Force survey for December 2002; Press Release Steve Maharey 11 February 2003 “Government welcomes fall in unemployment”

LONG-TERM TRENDS

Employment

Unemployment

Unemployment Rate

Sources – Statistics NZ Household Labour Force survey for December 2002

WHO’S GOT THE JOBS?

— over a third (72,300 or 38%) of the new jobs have gone to Maori and Pacific people.

— only 26,200 (or 14%) of the new jobs went to young people under the age of 25 years.

— two thirds (126,800 or 67%) of the new jobs have gone to people aged 45 years and over.

— women have gained slightly more of the new jobs than men.

— more full-time new jobs have been added than part time jobs.

— Canterbury is the powerhouse of job creation since June 1998, adding 54,700 jobs to the local economy (an increase of 24%). Taranaki (22% increase) and Wanganui/Manawatu (20% increase) are also major job creators. Auckland had an increase of 53,800 new jobs (10%)

— Wellington, Nelson, Malborough, the West Coast and Southland had no significant change in employment numbers during the last 4 ½ years.

— the Health and Community Services sector has created the most jobs, growing their workforce by a third since June 1998. Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, and the education sectors have also shown significant gains.

— the Manufacturing sector has recorded only 1% gain in the last 4 ½ years.

— despite the 165,000 new jobs since June 1998, the official unemployment figures have only fallen by 33,000 people.

— an increasing percentage of the unemployed are under the age of 25 years, rising from 35% to 42%.

Source – Statistics NZ Household Labour Force Survey for December 2002

MORE COMMENTS ON THE LATEST STATISTICS ...

Infometrics senior economist, Tony Booth, believes however that the unemployment rate could also drop further — possibly to as low as 4.5% by the start of next year. Booth: “It depends to a great extent on how much migration stops. The government has taken some measures to tighten up on migrants coming in, in terms of English language requirements and so on ...”

Wages are generally expected to start rising if unemployment remains below 5%, although they grew by just 2.1% last year compared to inflation of 2.6%. The economists surveyed by Dow Jones have commented that inflationary pressures from the growth in employment are being negated by the strong NZ dollar, and concerns about the world economy.

Sources — Dow Jones Newswire 10 February 2003 “NZ jobs growth likely to remain robust in 4Q” and 11 February 2003 “NZ Jobs Data underline 1H Rate Cut unlikely”; NZPA 12 February 2003 “Unemployment rate falls to 15-year low” by Melanie Carroll.

But CTU Economist Peter Conway says that the level of 98,000 people unemployed is still far too many given the strong demand for workers. Conway: “While in a dynamic labour market there is some unemployment as people move between jobs, there is clearly a contradiction when we have employers calling out for workers, but there are still nearly 100,000 out of work.” Conway says the answer lies partly in much better targeting of the training needs for the unemployed, and more assistance in the transition to work.

Source – Press Release CTU Peter Conway 11 February 2003 “Still Too Many Unemployed – CTU”

Newman points to official answers to her parliamentary questions which show that more than 42,000 NZ’ers, who are currently on the dole, have been paid benefits for more than two years. Newman: “ It is, therefore, deeply disturbing to discover that there are 37,000 New Zealanders who now appear to be missing. My question to the government is: where are they? They do exist. They are real people, who have been on benefits for more than two years — yet have not been incorporated into Government statistics...”

Newman’s view is that the Labour government is “hiding behind the smokescreen of the Labour Force Household survey — which does not count people as unemployed if they are not actively seeking work, or have worked for more than one hour in the past two years.”

Source – Press Release Muriel Newman 12 February 2003 “Government loses unemployed”

AUCKLAND DRIVES JOB ADS

The ANZ job ads series reports that there is a growing dichotomy between job ads in Auckland and in the rest of the country. Auckland job ads were up 30.1% on levels prevailing at the same time last year. But all other regions, except Christchurch, have recorded a fall in job advertising levels over the year.

ANZ Chief Economist David Drage: “After a period of robust growth, activity in some provincial centres has plateaued as the headwinds of a difficult international environment and recent strong gains in the Kiwi dollar feed through to rural incomes. To the extent that this has been reflected in job ad trends, the contrasting regional developments suggest that employment growth over the year ahead will be increasingly driven by Auckland…”

Source – ANZ Job Ads survey for 12 February 2003 “Auckland to drive further employment growth” by David Drage