Their predictions forecast a loss of 30,000 jobs in the year to June 1998; 8,000 in the following year; and 22,000 job losses in the year 2000.

Source Sunday Star-Times 14 December 1997 "Unemployment looks set to rise" by Garry Sheeran

Major winner: the dominant role that the Department of Social Welfare and its "welfare to wellbeing" ideology will have on the design of the new one-stop-shops.

Major disappointment: still no concrete strategy in place for the Employment Commissioners and the funding of regional initiatives. Also no new details on the replacement of the dole with a community and training wage, nor on the introduction of a work-for-the-dole programme.

This re-focussing is all part of the coalition government view that "... for all working-age beneficiaries, re-entering the workforce where appropriate is a key route to financial independence and income support should be seen as providing transitional assistance whilst a person is without work...".

Last week's announcement was cloaked in the language and terminology now associated with the government's proposed Code of Social Responsibility. Whether the new super-agency can indeed maintain an "employment" focus in the face of having to deal with such large numbers of people with other pressing concerns will be a primary test of this whole re-structuring.

There were many restructuring options considered in the last year ranging from "virtual" integration (low structural impact, higher collaboration between existing services) to limited integration ... on through to full integration (full re-structure, re-housing under one new boss). The Ministers have chosen the last option, and will no doubt need to weather the criticisms that they have taken the most expensive and disruptive choice.

The Minister's view: "It was considered that a single organisation, with clear accountability and no duplication or overlap of activities is the logical extension of the convergence of areas of focus between NZES, CEG and Income Support..."

(In the meantime Wellington is abuzz with faxes and emails with many pre-Christmas tongue-in-cheek suggestions of A.C.R.O.N.Y.M.S for the new entity.)

The entity will be organised under one government Minister with also no indication yet as to who this will be. Peter McCardle is clear that he wants the job ... but there remains the possibility that the Minister of Employment could be sub-ordinated under the new structure in favour of the Minister of Social Welfare. Watch this space.

At present, recipients of unemployment benefits, widows benefits, and domestic purposes benefits with children over the age of 14 years can be required to demonstrate that they are willing and able to work. Sickness and invalids beneficiaries are not. If the government extends work testing, these beneficiaries could also be required to undertake community work and training and attend job interviews.

To qualify at present for the invalids benefit, people must undergo a test to measure their degree of incapacity. Sowry: "We will be able to move to a position where we can assess people on what they are capable of doing, not what they are incapable of doing..."

Sources press statements from Peter McCardle and Roger Sowry 17 December 1997; "First Big Employment Strategy Decision Sees New One-Stop-Shop for Job Seekers"(McCardle), "One-Stop-Shop Logical for Unemployed"(Sowry); "Background Information and Summary of Employment Policy" (Q&A); McCardle Speech to Press Conference "Announcement of Employment, Income and Training One-Stop-Shop"; Press Statement from Rod Donald 17 December 1997 "McCardle's One Stop Shop will go nowhere"; The Daily News 18 December 1997 "Govt unveils welfare one-stop shop reform" by Astrid Smeele; The Dominion 18 December 1997 "Beneficiaries may have to work" by Nick Venter; New Zealand Herald 18 December 1997 "New agency to work-test invalids too" by Audrey Young; TV1 Breakfast News 18 December 1997 Steve Maharey and Peter McCardle intervied by Mike Hosking.

The decision was widely unpopular both amongst community sponsors of the CTF, and the NZES officers who had to administer it because it involved creating yet another layer of bureaucracy in order to assess the payments. It has also been identified as one of the key reasons why community groups have been reluctant to come on board as CTF sponsors.

Last week McCardle says he has "listened to the feedback" and Cabinet agreed to change back to the policy of a flat payment of $20 per week to cover work-related costs.

Source based on press statement from Peter McCardle 15 December 1997 "Minister Listens to Feedback and Reverses Earlier Policy Change" and press statement from Rod Donald 16 December 1997 "Minister congratulated for reversing stupid policy"

He reported that homicides of children by parents are now running at one a month and that new incidents of children being abused was "miles more" than the recent estimate of 17 children a day.

O'Reilly saved some stern words for criticisms of the priorities of the public service when it came to children : "The director-general of Social Welfare has said her prime obligation is to the Public Finances Act. How can you be a business manager and discharge your obligation for the care and protection of children in your care? You can't. I ask: what value do you put on children in New Zealand?"

Source The Dominion 15 December 1997 "O'Reilly makes stinging attack"

The conference will include over 50 speakers and workshop presenters including Jonathon Boston, Jennifer Pitcher, Rodger Spiller, Bonnie Robinson, Anne Else, Bill Bradford, Celia Briar, Garth Nowland-Foreman, Dave Tollich, Jane Higgins, John Stansfield, Keith Rankin, Leah McBey, Liz Gordon, Prue Hyman, Steve Maharey, Toni Allwood, Vicki Terrell, Bruce Hucker, Will Low and Ruth Dyson.

There will be a mixture of keynote speeches, workshops and also smaller focus groups. Part of the conference will be held at the Hoani Waititi marae, where participants will be hosted by the Te Whanau o Waipareira Trust. Contact: Social Responsibility Conference, P.O.Box 3813, Auckland 1 phone 09-302-2496 fax 09-377-4804 email auwrc@ihug.co.nz

Source Social Responsibility Conference notices

While the world's media was focussed last month on the Kyoto Climate conference, our Media Watch reports that the Kobe Jobs Summit almost completely passed by the attention of the international press. The conference followed up on the 1994 Detroit jobs summit and the 1996 Lille summit. And for the first time, the gathering included observers from the International Confederation of Free Trade Unions (ICFTU) and International Organization of Employers (IOE)

Each participating country gave presentations on how their governments were tackling these issues, including working closer with the business community in relation to the promotion of internships and on-the-job training programs. Non-government representatives at the conference called for greater flexibility and co-operation between trade unions, corporations, and governments. Their advice: flexibility that allows for technological change is the key to retaining high levels of employment.

The Japanese media reports that, as host country, Japan has been eager to lead discussions on how to encourage elderly people to keep working. It has one of the world's fastest-growing graying populations: by 2015, people aged 60 or more will represent 20.6% of the overall work force, up from 13.1% last year. Compared to other participating countries, Japan's unemployment rate is low (3.3% last year). About 20% of Japanese workers, however, are employed on a part-time basis and are eligible for fewer benefits.

Sources Asahi Evening News, 27 November 1997 By Kimie Itakura http://www.asahi.com/english/enews ; and Japan Times 29 November 1997 by Eric Johnston.

These jobs will not just in the Korean financial sector, but also in Thai assembly plants, retail stores in Hong Kong, and construction sites in Indonesia all of which are firing workers by their thousands. Migrant workers who fueled Asia's building boom are also likely to be sent home. And the Japanese are reporting that their long-sacred lifetime employment system is shriveling.

Business Week: "An unemployment crisis is gathering force in Asia, and layoffs are soaring to levels not seen for more than a decade... If these workers take to the streets in force, the region's political calm could be shattered. "

David C. Roche, an economist at London's Independent Strategy Ltd., notes that Mexican living standards fell nearly 30% after the peso shock three years ago. Roche: "That kind of drop in Asia would produce nothing short of a revolution." Compounding the risk is that most Asian countries lack unemployment benefits. International Labor Organization's predictions: a lot of unrest in Thailand, Indonesia, and Korea.

Business Week : "The layoffs will change Asia's labor markets for decades. Asia's miracle used to mean that just about every employee would have a job for life. The image of Asia's workers may now change from salaryman in a starched white shirt to banner-waving protesters ..."

Source Business Week 22 December 1997 "Jobs Shock in Asia" by Mark L. Clifford in Hong Kong, with Moon Ihlwan in Seoul, Michael Shari in Bangkok, and bureau reports

Thirty-six percent of NZ exports primarily dairy products, meat and timber also end up in Asia. DMG predicts a drop of 4.5% in exports next year, than would otherwise have been the case.

Source The Dominion 6 December 1997 "Asian crisis will reduce NZ growth"

Source The Guardian Weekly 7 December 1997 "Capitalism for some is a zero-risk game" by Martin Woollacott.