Unemployment peaked at 10.9% of the workforce in 1991, but the official figures have halved since then. But figures in the Budget predict that there will be 25,000 more working-age beneficiaries by 2005, taking the total to 382,000.

Ten years ago, all benefits, including superannuation, took $10.1 billion of $31.2 billion in government spending. While all government income and spending is forecast to rise, the government is expecting to continue to spend about a third of its expenditure on welfare. This financial year, benefits are expected to take $12.9 billion of total spending of $39.4 billion. By 2005, benefits are predicted to take $14.2 billion of total spending of $42.8 billion.

• Budget tables predict that the unemployment rate will fall to 5.1% by 2005. Treasury predictions for the years 2006-2011 put the unemployment rate at 5.9%. Their "scenarios" for 2006-2051 put the rate at 6%.

Source — The Dominion 4 June 2001 "More beneficiaries than at unemployment peak" by David McLoughlin

GROWING BENEFICIARY NUMBERS
Benefit Type	1991	2001	2005 (forecast)
Domestic Purposes	97,000	110,000	112,000
Unemployment	147,000	155,000	162,000
Invalids	29,000	58,000	72,000
Sickness	21,000	34,000	36,000
Total Working Age Beneficiaries	294,000	357,000	382,000
NZ Superannuation	500,000	449,000	473,000
Total Beneficiaries	794,000	806,000	855,000
Unemployment Rate	10.9%	5.4%	5.1%

Source — Treasury, Budget Tables, The Dominion

A Labour Department report for the Wood Processing Strategy Group says that the labour pool in the region is surprisingly small, and there is a lack of incentives to encourage people to work in the industry. The report identifies issues such as a lack of work skills and discipline, alcohol and drug use, low pay in the industry, and people opting for benefits and seasonal work rather than forestry careers.

The Budget has allocated a package totalling $700,000 to begin to address these issues. $120,000 will go towards employing a full-time co-ordinator for 12 months to bring together the government, industry and community efforts in the area. In the pipeline are: literacy, numeracy and silviculture training programmes to prepare job seekers for forestry jobs, working with contractors on how to be good employers, and resourcing local social service providers to work with local problems, including substance abuse.

Source _ Newsroom 25 May 2001 "Govt moves on forestry labour shortage" by Patric Lane; Newsroom 25 May 2001 "Labour shortage to harvest logs" by Frank Perry; Maharey Notes 23 May 2001 "Harvesting Tairawhiti's wall-of-wood"

The report estimates the value of productive unpaid work that falls outside the measures of production found in the national accounts. It is based on the recently-released Time Use Survey which collected data on how New Zealanders spend their time. This information has been combined with a median housekeeper wage rate to derive the unpaid work values. The report follows similar studies recently done overseas and the choice of method used to define and value unpaid work is consistent with an emerging international consensus. The report shows:

Measuring Unpaid Work in New Zealand 1999,
by Statistics New Zealand
can be ordered by email at publications@stats.govt.nz, or can be downloaded from their website at www.stats.govt.nz.

Full document (72 pg, 3 MB)

Source _ Measuring Unpaid Work in New Zealand 1999, by Statistics New Zealand; Press Release: Statistics NZ 25 May 2001 "Unpaid work valued at $40 billion in 1999"; The Dominion 16 May 2001 "Plunket boss lauds volunteer workers" by Lidsey Birnie

The value of volunteering is clearly evident to Plunket, which provides Well Child services to children and young parents. A visiting professor from Georgetown University has estimated the value of the 8,000 Plunket volunteers at about $46.8 million. The volunteers also raise more than $5 million each year to bridge the gap between government funding and what is required to deliver their services.

Source — The Dominion 16 May 2001 "Plunket boss lauds volunteer workers" by Lindsey Birnie

BNZ Chief economist Tony Alexander comments the survey has several implications for the economy: employment costs would escalate; work standards may deteriorate when workers realise there are more jobs out there; labour turnover would accelerate, imposing added staff training costs; and businesses will put extra investment in labour savings technology.

Alexander: "Since the late 1960s and early 1970s in NZ, the balance of power had been in favour of the employer. But three or four years ago, we started to see that changing with skill shortages in some areas such as accounting and legal work. It's now much more widespread..."

Source — NZ Herald 16 April 2001 "Skills shortage grows critical" by Ellen Read;

The strategy forecasts spending by overseas tourists will jump to $9.4 billion by 2010. It highlights the need to help tourists who come here to spend more, rather than simply aiming to boost tourist numbers. Example: a 1% increase in tourist spending brings the same economic benefit — $1 billion more revenue — as a 12% growth in tourist numbers.

The report argues that tourism's share of industry training is disproportionately low when compared to its contribution to the economy. It says that Skill NZ has not seen tourism as a priority area for training. Last year it allocated just 1.1% of funding for industry training to aviation, tourism, travel and hospitality, compared with 10.1% for agriculture and 9.1% for forestry.

The report also comments that the renumeration structure and perceptions about low skill level, low status, lack of career paths and seasonality of many jobs have all resulted in tourism not being seen as an attractive long-term prospect for employment.

— The Tourism 2010 report can be downloaded from the Tourism NZ website at www.tourisminfo.govt.nz

Source — The Dominion 30 May 2001 "Tourism growth plan could stumble on skills shortage" by Craig Howie; New Zealand Herald 18 May 2001 "Tourism Industry shakeup could treble income, says plan" by Simon Hendry

The conference will be run in August and is a joint effort between the government and Auckland University. For more information contact www.knowledgewave.org.nz

Source — NZ Herald 31 May 2001 "Think tank on new economy"